摘要: 塔里木河各源流的径流规律不完全一致，导致了塔里木河干流水源组成变化比较大。为了认识塔里木河流域的源流和干流径流规律的特点，为流域的水资源可持续发展提供依据，采用模比系数Kp值法、Morlet小波分析法、坎德尔(kendall)秩次检验法分别对塔里木河源流和干流阿拉尔站(1958~2007)年径流的丰枯变化、周期性、趋势性展开分析，经计算分析，塔里木河源流和干流丰枯同步频率为26%；周期尺度表现相对一致，存在17年的周期成分，径流趋势呈现不同，源流有增有减，干流则递减。

Abstract: The uncertainty of runoff rules of Tarim River’s headwaters leads to the great change of composi-tion of Tarim River’s main stream. To analyze the runoff rules of Tarim River’s headwaters and trunk stream, and provide the basis for sustainable development of water resources, this study selects modulus coefficient Kp method, Morlet wavelet analysis method and Kendall rank test model to analyze the abundance, cycle and trends annual runoff rules of headwaters and Alar hydrological station (1958-2007) at main stream of Tarim River. The results show that, the frequency synchronization of abundance of headwaters and main stream is 26%. The existing cycles is 17-year cycle, the runoff trend of headwaters are increasing or decreasing, while decreasing at main stream.