基于加权马尔可夫模型的径流预测研究
Application of Weighted Markov Chain Model to Predict Runoff
DOI: 10.12677/JWRR.2012.16075, PDF, HTML,  被引量    国家自然科学基金支持
作者: 胡忠玲, 沈 冰*, 吕继强：西安理工大学西北水资源与环境生态教育部重点实验室
关键词: FCM；加权马尔可夫；自相关系数；年径流；FCM; Weighted Markov Chain; Autocorrelation Coefficient; Annual Runoff
摘要: 本文尝试应用模糊C均值聚类(FCM)划分马尔可夫链模型的径流状态区间，再针对径流量随机变量特点，以各阶自相关系数为状态权重，应用该加权马尔可夫链模型预测径流量状态。依据青海省达日县吉迈水文站55年(1950~2004)年径流量资料，预测了2001~2004年的径流状态，预测结果均与实际情况相符合。说明用FCM确定状态区间的马尔可夫链模型对吉迈水文站的径流状态预测是可行的、有效的。
Abstract: This paper tries to take the Fuzzy C-Means method (FCM) to classify runoff state of Markov chain model. Then aiming at the runoff characteristics of dependent random variables and taking order of autocor- relation coefficients as the weights, Markov chain model is used to predict the following year runoff state. The runoff state from 2001-2004 are predict based on the 54 years annual runoff data from 1950-2004 at Ji- mai gauging station located in Dari country, Qinghai Province, the results are consistent with the actual situa- tion. That means the application of Markov chain model with FCM to determine runoff state of Jimai gauging station is feasible and effective.
文章引用：胡忠玲, 沈冰, 吕继强. 基于加权马尔可夫模型的径流预测研究[J]. 水资源研究, 2012, 1(6): 470-474. http://dx.doi.org/10.12677/JWRR.2012.16075

参考文献

[1] 张琛. 一种改进的模糊马尔可夫链预测模型与应用研究[D]. 辽宁工程技术大学, 2007. ZHANG Chen. Research on forecast model and application of an improved fuzzy Markov chain. Liaoning Technical University, 2007. (in Chinese)
[2] 孙才志, 张戈, 林学钰. 加权马尔可夫模型在降水丰枯状况预测中的应用[J]. 系统工程理论与实践, 2003, 4: 100-105. SUN Caizhi, ZHANG Ge and LIN Xueyu. Model of Markov chain with weights and its application in predicting the precipi- tation state. Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice, 2003, 4: 100-105. (in Chinese)
[3] 蔡静颖. 模糊C均值算法的研究[D]. 辽宁师范大学, 2010. CAI Jingyin. The research on fuzzy C-Means algorithm. Liao- ning Normal University, 2010. (in Chinese)
[4] 梁静国, 张亚光, 戈华. CRM中的模糊C均值(FCM)客户聚类算法研究[J]. 哈尔滨工程大学学报, 2004, 25(4): 257-260. LIANG Jingguo, ZHANG Yaguang and GE Hua. Research on fuzzy C-Means customer clustering algorithm (FCM) in CRM. Journal of Harbin Engineering University, 2004, 25(4): 257-260. (in Chi-nese)
[5] 王涛, 钱会, 李培月. 加权马尔可夫链在银川地区降雨量预测中的应用[J]. 南水北调与水利科技, 2010, 8(1): 78-81. WANG Tao, QIAN Hui and LI Peiyue. Prediction of precipita- tion based on the weighted Markov chain in Yinchuan Area. South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science & Technology, 2010, 8(1): 78-81. (in Chinese)
[6] 王文圣, 丁晶. 随机水文学[M]. 中国水利水电出版社, 2008. WANG Wensheng, DING Jin. Stochastic hydrology. China Na- tional Water Resources and Hydropower Press, 2008. (in Chi- nese)
[7] 刘德地, 陈晓宏. 一种北江流域年降雨量的权马尔可夫链预测模型[J]. 水文, 2006, 26(6): 23-26. LIU Dedi, CHEN Xiaohong. Annual precipitation forecasting based on the weighted Markov chain in Beijiang River basin. Journal of China Hydrology, 2006, 26(6): 23-26. (in Chinese)